12.17.2004
Income-Variability Anxiety (NYTimes.com)
By NOAM SCHEIBER
Published: December 12, 2004
For decades, political scientists have believed that the economy is the key to a president's re-election chances: when the economy is buoyant, as it was in 1984 and 1996, the incumbent should cruise to victory. When the economy is dicey, as it was in 1980 and 1992, the advantage tilts toward the challenger. So it is no surprise that with every major economic indicator looking good this year, leading political-science models tended to show George W. Bush winning easily.
That obviously didn't happen. And the reason, according to a recent series of papers by Jacob Hacker, a Yale political scientist, is that while incomes have been rising, so has the degree to which those incomes fluctuate. The problem for an incumbent, Hacker argues, is that voters care a great deal about having a stable income, not just about having a large one.
(More ... The New York Times > Magazine > Income-Variability Anxiety) ¶ 09:55
Published: December 12, 2004
For decades, political scientists have believed that the economy is the key to a president's re-election chances: when the economy is buoyant, as it was in 1984 and 1996, the incumbent should cruise to victory. When the economy is dicey, as it was in 1980 and 1992, the advantage tilts toward the challenger. So it is no surprise that with every major economic indicator looking good this year, leading political-science models tended to show George W. Bush winning easily.
That obviously didn't happen. And the reason, according to a recent series of papers by Jacob Hacker, a Yale political scientist, is that while incomes have been rising, so has the degree to which those incomes fluctuate. The problem for an incumbent, Hacker argues, is that voters care a great deal about having a stable income, not just about having a large one.
(More ... The New York Times > Magazine > Income-Variability Anxiety) ¶ 09:55
