11.18.2004
Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions (Scoop.co.nz)
By Scoop Co-Editor Alastair Thompson
Scoop.co.nz is delighted to be able today to publish a full set of 4pm exit poll data for the first time on the Internet since the US election. The data emerged this evening NZT in a post on the Democratic Underground website under the forum name TruthIsAll.
The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing.
Figure 1: Graph showing the "red shift" between 2004 US General Election exit polls & the actual 2004 US Election results
In the data which is shown below in tabulated form, and above in graph form, we can see that 42 of the 51 states in the union swung towards George Bush while only nine swung towards Kerry.
There has to date been no official explanation for the discrepancy.
Ordinarily in the absence of an obvious mistabulation error, roughly the same number of states should have swung towards each candidate.
Moreover many of the states that swung against Democratic Party hopeful John Kerry swung to an extent that is well beyond the margin of error in exit polls. Exit polls by their nature - they ask voters how they actually voted rather than about their intentions - are typically considered highly accurate.
(More ... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions) ¶ 19:53
Scoop.co.nz is delighted to be able today to publish a full set of 4pm exit poll data for the first time on the Internet since the US election. The data emerged this evening NZT in a post on the Democratic Underground website under the forum name TruthIsAll.
The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing.
Figure 1: Graph showing the "red shift" between 2004 US General Election exit polls & the actual 2004 US Election results
In the data which is shown below in tabulated form, and above in graph form, we can see that 42 of the 51 states in the union swung towards George Bush while only nine swung towards Kerry.
There has to date been no official explanation for the discrepancy.
Ordinarily in the absence of an obvious mistabulation error, roughly the same number of states should have swung towards each candidate.
Moreover many of the states that swung against Democratic Party hopeful John Kerry swung to an extent that is well beyond the margin of error in exit polls. Exit polls by their nature - they ask voters how they actually voted rather than about their intentions - are typically considered highly accurate.
(More ... Scoop: Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions) ¶ 19:53
