10.31.2004
Kerry Must Win Over "Security Moms" to Beat Bush (TheUnionLeader.com)
By ROBERT D. NOVAK
POLLSTER John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for President. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the President is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.
The long, tortuous Presidential contest has come down to who the "security mom" thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Sen. Kerry's relentless attacks. That explains why the Democratic nominee this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush's security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
The Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News - 30-Oct-04 - Robert D. Novak:
Kerry must win over "security moms" to beat Bush: ¶ 14:22
POLLSTER John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for President. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the President is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.
The long, tortuous Presidential contest has come down to who the "security mom" thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Sen. Kerry's relentless attacks. That explains why the Democratic nominee this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush's security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
The Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News - 30-Oct-04 - Robert D. Novak:
Kerry must win over "security moms" to beat Bush: ¶ 14:22
